posted 08.35 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Monday 16th December
Note: we will be following ES March contract from this week.
Friday closed below the low of Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates Sellers Active on this timeframe.
Last week I marked Significant Selling once and no Significant Buying. We have been watching First Level Support at ES 1758.50. Interestingly, the March contract (which we are now following) briefly probed that level overnight and recovered indicating this is valid Support. Time printed below this level would indicate further weakness and see comment re IWM chart below.
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum for all four charts is now down. Key chart/level to monitor is IWM which found Support just above 109.16, its 3mn poc. Look for further weakness if time is spent below that level.
First Level Resistance = 1792.00 poc
First Level Support = 1758.50 poc
Breadth: The CP Market Timing system remained negative for Nyse, turned negative for Nasdaq and R2000 and remained negative for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46%, Nasdaq51%, R2000 51%, UK 49%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.5. Previous week the ratio reached 5.67 which is the highest in my database. This indicator is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Recently probed the August low. Remains in a weak price location.
Gold GLD: Still in a very weak price location.
Oil USO: Back in a stronger price location back above 34.13, (3yr poc). Momentum is now positive and up.
Dollar Index: Is today printing back below (just) the important 80.15 level.
EURUSD: Printed a 30day high last week. Momentum is up and positive.
