Chartprofit eBook 27th December 2013
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES Analysis:Last week I marked Significant Buying once. Significant Selling has not been marked for twelve days. As long as ES holds above the 4mn poc at 1803.50 it is in a strong price location.
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum for all four Stock Index ETFs is now positive and up.
*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: The CP Market Timing system turned positive (from neutral) for Nyse, stayed positive for Nasdaq and R2000 and turned neutral (from negative) for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 72%, R2000 73%, UK 71%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
The majority of Sentiment indicators have registered extreme optimism recently. This usually a warning for the market.
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Consensus Polls:
12/27: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 55.1% which is the highest Bulls% since January 2011. Bears% was lower at 18.5%. The 4wk ma of net (Bulls-Bears) reached 22.60, slightly lower than the ratio six weeks ago at 22.62 which was the highest since early 2012.
12/27: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 59.6% which is the highest since October 2007. Bears% was lower at 14.1% which is the lowest Bears% in my database. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 45.5 is the highest single reading in my database and the 4wkma of nett at 44.02 is also the highest in my database
12/27: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 67which is the highest reading since late May.
12/27: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 98.94. There are only three readings higher than this, the highest being February’s 104.25.
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Mutual Fund Flow:
12/27: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.65 which is the highest ratio in my database. This indicator is registering extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market.
12/27: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $13.7 Billion in the week to 25th December.
12/27: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $6.9 Billion in the week to 25th December.