posted 09.25 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Tuesday 18th March
Note: I will republish the chart later today to show this week’s data as the ES June contract which we will switch to.
Monday’s Value Area was higher but narrower and I would want to see Significant Buyers marked again before considering the long side on any timeframe. Would also want to see Momentum turning up for the four stock index ETFs. ES prints above its poc Support though, so chart hasn’t broken down yet.
Dayframe: Useful intraday level to monitor is the minor 1/2R of the recent high. This would be 1859 ES Mar and 1852 ES Jun.
First Level Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Second Level Support = 1792.00
Breadth: Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67% (from 61%), Nasdaq 61% (from 58)%, R2000 63% (from 61%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 7.28. The ratio reached 8.39 last week which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
? KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: pre-open today chart is printing slightly above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
? KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing just slightly above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: printing above 106.34 (10mn poc) in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: In a weak price location below 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: holding a LT strong price location above 127.20, the 18mn poc but Momentum is down and negatively diverging with price.
Oil USO: Printing below 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high in a weak price location. Momentum is negative and down.
EURUSD: Printed a two year high last week.
