Chartprofit eBook 28th February 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: Over the last fifteen days I have marked Significant Buying eight times and Significant Selling once (which was Ineffective). All five Value Areas last week were printed above 1835.50 (6mn poc) which is strong price location.
Dayframe: pre-open today ES has printed as low as 1835.75, just above that Support. If price should print below 1835.50 at the start of this week I would delay any new long positions, at least until price recovers that level. First sign of weakness in the longer timeframe would be Effective Selling marked below that poc.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP market timing system is positive for all four Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68%, Nasdaq 61%, R2000 61%. UK 75%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
02/28: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 39.7% (from 42.2%). Bears% was also lower at 21.1% (from 22.8%).
02/28: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 53.5%. Eight week’s ago Bulls% reached 61.6% which was the highest since October 2007. Bears% was unchanged at 17.2%. Nine week’s ago Bears% hit 14.1% which was the lowest Bears% in my database. The 4wkma of nett at 29.6 is off the high of 45.3 it reached seven weeks ago – the highest in my database
02/28: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 65
02/28: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 91.62
Mutual Fund Flow:
02/28: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 7.07. On Wednesday the ratio reached 7.71 which is the highest ratio in my database.
02/28: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $7 Billion in the week to 26th Feb
02/28: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.5 Billion in the week to 26th Feb