posted 09.14 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 28th March
Thursday’s session generated a lower, narrower Value Area. There was a brief probe into the Support. In the last three weeks I have marked Significant Selling seven times and Significant Buying twice and yet all daily Value Areas have been printed above 1835.50, the 6mn poc. So Sellers have been active but so far ineffective on the longer timeframe. However, Price Momentum and Breadth have deteriorated this week and Significant Selling marked below 1835.50 would be a further negative in the LT.
Second Level Resistance = 1872 (2mn poc)
First Level Resistance = 1852 (minor 1/2R ES Jun)
First Level Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 54% ( from 56%), Nasdaq 42% (from 44%), R2000 46% (from 49%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 7.21. On 03/13 the ratio reached 8.39 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
? KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: printing just slightly above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
– KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing below 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: pre-open is printing above 107.24, the 2year poc and printed an eight month high on Thursday.
Dollar Index: now printing back above 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: printing below 127.20, the 18mn poc in a weak price location and has printed a 30day low pre-open today. Momentum remains down. SLV printed a 35day low on Thursday.
Oil USO: Pre-open is printing above 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: Printed a two year high earlier in the month. Off that high with Momentum down but still holding a strong price location above 1.3673, the 12mn poc.
