posted 09.13 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 28th March
In the last three weeks I have marked Significant Selling seven times and Significant Buying twice and yet there has been no obvious breakdown in price meaning Sellers have been active but so far ineffective on the longer timeframe. Support at the 1835.50 poc was briefly tested and rejected on Thursday, as was SPY’s 184.32 equivalent Support. Important levels to monitor. Price Momentum and Breadth deteriorated last week and Significant Selling marked below 1835.50 would be a further negative in the LT.
Resistance = 1872 (minor poc)
Intraday S/R today = 1852 (minor 1/2R ES Jun)
Support = 1835.50 (6mn poc)
Breadth: CP Market Timing System. All Major Market Charts are now negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60%, Nasdaq 42%, R2000 48%, U.K. 45%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.78. On 03/13 the ratio reached 8.39 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts (+ or – shown as implied bias for equities)
? KEY Chart Financial Sector XLF: printing just slightly above its maj 1/2R level (22.04).
+ KEY Chart EURJPY: chart is printing above 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high.
– KEY Chart Bonds TLT: pre-open is printing above 107.24, the 2year poc and printed an eight month high last week.
Dollar Index: printing above 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: printing below 127.20, the 18mn poc in a weak price location and printed a 30day low last week. Momentum remains down. SLV printed a 35day low last week.
Oil USO: Pre-open is printing above 36.11, the 1/2R off Sep high in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: Printed a two year high earlier in the month. Off that high with Momentum down but still holding a strong price location above 1.3673, the 12mn poc.
