Chartprofit eBook 4th April 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis:On Friday I marked Reactive Selling (red-at-top) and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom). New long trades are now eliminated for me, at least until new Significant Buying is marked again. Negatives are building but there is LT Support at 1835.50 (6mn poc) – price printing below this level would be a further LT negative.
The ST analysis looks weaker after Friday’s session. ES broke below 1872.50 (30dy poc), Breadth numbers deteriorated, and Price Momentum weakened. Monitoring the Key Supporting Charts which currently print very close to their important levels, see below.
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum (PriceOsc) for IWM and QQQ is negative and turned lower on Friday. Momentum for SPY and DIA remains positive and up. Small Caps and Tech sectors are clearly underperforming Large Cap now which is usually not a positive for the market.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System. Nyse turned back to positive (from negative). All other Major Market Charts remained negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68%, Nasdaq 44%, R2000 51%, U.K. 56%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
04/04: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 35.4%. Bears% was lower at 26.8%
04/04: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 50.5%. Bears% was higher at 18.65%. The 4wkma of nett is at 35.35 with the highest being 45.3 at the start of the year.
04/04: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 62 (from 61)
04/04: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was almost unchanged at 91.43
Mutual Fund Flow:
04/04: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.73, a 23day low. On 03/13 the ratio reached 8.39 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
04/04: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $5.4 Billion in the week to 2nd April
04/04: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.2 Billion in the week to 2nd April