Chartprofit eBook 11th April 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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SPY closed the week below Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range and the weekly bar was lower. This indicates Sellers Active and Effective on this timeframe
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling four times and Significant Buying twice. Sellers auctioned ES below the 1835.50 poc and this is weak price location without an obvious and close next level Support. If ES remains below that level I will be very cautious and at current levels would not consider new longs on any timeframe.
Stock Index ETFs: SPY, IWM and QQQ have Momentum negative and down and print below their important poc levels
*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: CP market Timing System is now negative for all Major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 40%, Nasdaq 24%, R2000 28%, UK 33%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
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*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
04/11: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 28.5% (from 35.4%). There’s only been one Bulls% lower than this since April last year. Bears% was higher at 34.1% (from 26.8%)
04/11: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 54.6% (from 50.5%). Bears% was unchanged at 18.65%. The 4wkma of nett is at 34.93 with the highest being 45.3 at the start of the year
04/11: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 58 (from 62)
04/11: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 85.21.
Mutual Fund Flow:
04/11: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.6. This is a 31day low but historically still high so no panic here despite the weakness last week. The ratio reached 8.39 on 03/13 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders were extremely bullish at that point and historically this has been a warning for the market.
04/11: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $8.9 Billion in the week to 11th April
04/11: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.1 Billion in the week to 11th April