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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling once. Price activity was centred around 1872 and the 4mn poc migrated to this level. If ES can hold above 1872 it is in a strong price location.
Stock Index ETFs: Pre-open today SPY is printing above 187.73, the 7mn poc, IWM is printing below 111.48 (12mn poc), QQQ is printing above 86.32, the 8mn poc and DIA is printing above 163.40 (2yr poc) at a new high.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System is now negative for all major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 50%, Nasdaq 24%, R2000 29%, UK 45%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
05/09: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was slightly lower at 28.3%. Three weeks ago the Bulls% fell to 27.2% which was the lowest for twelve months. This week’s Bears% was also slightly lower at 28.7%. The 4week ma of nett (Bulls minus Bears) is higher but last week’s -0.95, was the lowest since late June 2013.
05/09: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 55.8%. Bears% was slightly lower at 19.7%. Two weeks ago the Bears% fell to 21.7% which was the highest since September
05/09: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 59
05/09: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 76.81
Mutual Fund Flow:
05/09: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.71. On 04/17 the ratio fell as low as 4.83, a 72day low.
05/09: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of $7.0 Billion in the week to 7th May
05/09: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.6 Billion in the week to 7th May