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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES: Last week I marked Significant Buying once and no Significant Selling. Early in the week the min poc fell to 1922.50 where ES subsequently found Support and later in the week the min poc moved back up to 1949.00. Will this level provide Support at the start of this week? Pre-open today ES has printed as low as 1952.00.
Positives: Breadth is supportive. Buyers are active and as long as ES holds above 1949.00 it is in a strong ST price location. SmallCaps have started to outperform.
Negatives: VIX printed its lowest level since 2007 indicating a concerning level of complacency; momentum for all four Stock Index ETFs (although positive) is down.
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*********** BREADTH
Breadth – CP market Timing System: Nyse stayed positive, Nasdaq and R2000 turned positive and U.K. remained negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 76%, Nasdaq 69%, R2000 73%, UK 48%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
06/20: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was sharply lower at 35.2% (from 44.7%). Bears% was higher at 24.1% (from 21.3%)
06/20: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 61.4%. Down from previous week’s 62.6% which was an extreme high number. Bears% was also lower at 16.3%. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 45.1, although slightly lower, is still close to the extreme of 46.4 reached at the start of the year.
06/20: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 64. Previous week’s 66 was the highest since the start of the year
06/20: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was slightly higher at 88.59
Mutual Fund Flow:
06/20: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 7.92. On 06/16 the ratio reached 9.40 which is the highest in my database
06/20: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $5.3 Billion in the week to 18th June
06/20: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $126 Million in the week to 18th June
Options:
06/20: ISEE Index (equities only) 10ma reached a 2year high this week
VIX
06/20: VIX closed at 10.61 on Thursday, the lowest close since Feb 2007