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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES: Although both the Significant Sellers and Buyers were active, ES made little progress last week. As I have written before, when both Significant groups are active but ineffective in the ST it usually suggests that current price is centred around an important (or more likely developing) poc. In this case the level is 1949.00 and on Friday this became the 3mn poc. As I wrote at this time last week and can write again here “will this level provide Support at the start of this week”? Bulls would hope the answer is yes.
Stock Index ETFs. In the ST the Key chart is SPY and Key level is 194.83, 35day poc. Bulls would want to see this level hold especially with the current Sentiment reading, see Rydex data below. In the LT bulls would want to see 114.00 (1/2R) on the IWM chart hold.
*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: CP Market Timing System – Nyse, Nasdaq and R2000 all stayed postive. U.K. stayed negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 76%, Nasdaq 69%, R2000 73%, UK 39%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
06/27: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 37.2% (from 35.2%). Bears% was lower at 21.1% which is the lowest Bears% since the end of last year.
06/27: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 60.2%. Two week’s ago Bulls% reached 62.6% which was an extreme high number. Bears% was unchanged at 16.3%. The 4wkma of nett (Bulls minus Bears) is at 44.8, just below the extreme peak of 45.3 reached at the start of year.
06/27: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 64. Two week’s ago number reached 66 which was the highest since the start of the year
06/27: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was almost unchanged at 88.15
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Mutual Fund Flow:
06/27: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 9.67. Thursday’s ratio at 10.07 is the highest in my database.
06/27: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $1.5 Billion in the week to 25th June
06/27: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $620 Million in the week to 25th June
Options:
06/27: ISEE Index (equities only) 10ma reached a 2year high w/e 06/20
VIX
06/27: VIX closed at 10.61 on 06/19, the lowest close since Feb 2007