S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 3rd July

posted 09.18 a.m. est

Wednesday generate a narrow, “inside” Value Area on low Volume. No Significant Selling for six days. First sign of weakness in the ST would be Effective Selling marked below ES 1949.00. See Dollar Index & EURUSD, below.

ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (3mn poc)
ES LT Support = 1872.00 (maj poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78% (from 80%), Nasdaq 77% (unch), R2000 79% (from 81%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 9.74. Last Thursday the ratio reached 10.07 which is the highest in my database. VIX closed at 10.82 on Wednesday, the extreme low in June was 10.34.

Supporting Charts:
Financial Sector XLF: printing above 22.04, its Major 1/2R level.
EURJPY: chart is printing below 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high in a weak price location.
Bonds TLT: Remains in a strong LT price location above 107.24, the 2yr poc but has printed a 46day low pre-open today.
Dollar Index: sold off in June but has has found Support this week at the 79.76 maj poc. Dollar bulls would want to see this level hold. Momentum is negative.
Gold GLD: In a strong price location as long as chart holds above 124.12, the 2yr poc.
Oil USO: printing above 37.96 in a strong price location. Momentum (although positive) is down. Closed at a fifteen day low on Wednesday.
EURUSD: The 12mn poc migrated slightly to 1.3602. The rally off the June low failed this week at 1.3673 which was previously the 12mn poc. With the dollar index finding Support there is a hint of change here but break above 1.3673 or below 1.3602 will likely determine the ST direction.