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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES: Last week Buyers Reacted (green-at-bottom) on Thursday as First Level Support at 1949 was tested and rejected. This was ST positive for the Bulls and so far there’s been no markable response from the Sellers at this higher price range.
In the LT there are concerns for equities re strength in Bonds and Dollar, Sentiment extremes, Breadth and negative Momentum divergences but as long as ES holds above 1966.50 it is in a strong price location. First sign of weakness in the LT would be Significant Selling marked below 1949.00.
*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: CP market Timing System turned neutral for Nyse, turned negative for Nasdaq and R2000 and remained negative for U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60%, Nasdaq 56%, R2000 56%, U.K. 29%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
07/11: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was slightly lower at 37.6%. Bears% was higher at 28.7%, up from 21.1% two weeks ago which was the lowest Bears% since the end of last year.
07/11: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 60.6%. Four week’s ago Bulls% reached 62.6% which was an extreme high number. Bears% was lower at 15.2% with the extreme low being 14.1% at the end of last year. The 4wkma of nett (Bulls minus Bears) is unchanged at 43.98, just below the extreme peak of 45.3 reached at the start of year.
07/11: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 65. Previous week’s 66 was the highest reading since the start of the year
07/11: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 82.47
Mutual Fund Flow:
07/11: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 9.81. The ratio reached 10.07 on 06/26 which is the highest in my database
07/11: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $3.7 Billion in the week to 9th July
07/11: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.5 Billion in the week to 9th July
VIX
Recently (07/03) VIX closed at 10.32, the lowest close since Feb 2007