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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES analysis: Both the Significant Buyers (green) and Sellers (red) were active last week which is unusual and indicates a minor struggle for control. However, all Value Areas were generated below 1949, the 4mn poc, and therefore in the longer timeframe the Selling can be considered Aggressive and the Buying Reactive. How strong the Buyers are at this point will depend on whether they can auction ES back above 1949.
Key Charts are currently holding their Support levels. This is critical for the Bulls. The following levels should be watched closely. Please review the charts.
*********** BREADTH
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CP Market Timing System remained negative for all major Market Charts
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 30%), Nasdaq 36%, R2000 33%, UK 23%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
08/08: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was almost unchanged at 30.9%. Bears% was sharply higher at 38.2% which is the highest Bears% for nearly twelve months.
08/08: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 50.5% (from 55.6%). Bears% was slightgly higher at 17.1% (from 16.2%).
08/08: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 59, a sixteen week low. Just two week’s ago the number reached 66 which was the highest reading since the start of the year.
08/08: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was sharply lower at 50.87 which is the lowest reading since September last year.
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Mutual Fund Flow:
08/08: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.33 a 50day low. On 07/29 the ratio reached 10.47, the highest in my database.
08/08: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of $16.4 Billion in the week to 6th August, which is the largest single week outflow since early February
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VIX
08/08: VIX ended the week at 15.77 having reached 17.57 on 08/01, the highest reading since early April. On 07/03 it closed at 10.32, the lowest since Feb 2007