S&P 500 emini pre-open Tuesday 12th August
posted 09.09 a.m. est
Monday opened higher following Friday’s bounce. The session generated a Value Area higher than the recent price range but below the 1949 poc, see yesterday’s highlighted comments.
The minor 1/2R off July’s high is at 1938 (dashed). This was probed yesterday but little time was printed above this natural Resistance. As mentioned many times I always watch 1/2R off a market high because in a weak market this level will often mark a lower high.
ES First Level Resistance = 1949.00 (4mn poc)
ES First Level Support = 1872 (maj poc)
All four major stock index ETFs have negative price momentum, breadth is not supportive and Bonds and Dollar remain strong. However in the longer timeframe charts have not yet broken down. It is therefore critical that the following Support levels hold.
ETFs – Key Charts/Levels: Time printed below these prices could signal a major change in trend for the market. SPY 192.73 (3mn poc); IWM 111.64 (2yr poc); DIA 164.23 (2yr poc); XLF 21.99 (2yr poc); XLK 38.42 (maj 1/2R).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36% (from 30%), Nasdaq 42% (from 36%), R2000 40% (from 33%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 6.27 a 52day low. On 07/29 the ratio reached 10.47, the highest in my database. VIX closed lower at 14.23 having reached 17.57 on 08/01, the highest reading since early April. On 07/03 it closed at 10.32, the lowest since Feb 2007.
Bonds TLT: in a strong price location above 112.27, the 10mn poc. Approaching Resistance around 117.00
Dollar Index: in early July chart found Support at the 79.76 maj poc and has moved strongly higher from there. Last week chart reached its highest level since Sep last year.
Gold GLD: the 30mn poc recently migrated to 124.15. Chart currently prints above that level which is a stronger price location.
Oil USO: printing below 37.96, the maj poc, in a weak price location.
EURUSD: Chart prints below 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low, in a weak price location.
