S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 14th August
posted 09.14 a.m. est
dayframe: All three Value Areas (VA) this week have been printed above last week’s composite VA but each has been narrower than the VA 20day average. Volume has also been below average. ST Bulls would prefer to see expanding VAs and Volume on a rally following a sharp decline. Even so, pre-open ES has printed as high as 1949 which is the given Resistance and should time be printed above that level the chart would be in a stronger ST price location. See previous highlighted comments. If ES probes 1949 post-open I will be interested to see if Sellers React. The 20dy poc at 1931 is minor Support.
ES First Level Resistance = 1949.00 (4mn poc)
ES First Level Support = 1872 (maj poc)
All four major stock index ETFs have negative price momentum, breadth is not supportive and Bonds and Dollar remain strong. However in the longer timeframe charts have not yet broken down. It is therefore critical that the following Support levels hold.
ETFs – Key Charts/Levels: Time printed below these prices could signal a major change in trend for the market. SPY 192.73 (3mn poc); IWM 111.64 (2yr poc); DIA 164.23 (2yr poc); XLF 21.99 (2yr poc); XLK 38.42 (maj 1/2R).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 37% (from 32%), Nasdaq 40% (from 37%), R2000 39% (from 35%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 6.29, from Tuesday’s 6.14 which was a 53day low. On 07/29 the ratio reached 10.47, the highest in my database. VIX closed at 12.9, down from 17.57 on 08/01, the highest reading since early April. On 07/03 it closed at 10.32, the lowest since Feb 2007.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: in a strong price location above 112.27, the 10mn poc. Approaching Resistance around 117.00
Dollar Index: in early July chart found Support at the 79.76 maj poc and has moved strongly higher from there. Last week chart reached its highest level since Sep last year.
Gold GLD: the 30mn poc recently migrated to 124.15. Chart currently prints above that level which is a stronger price location.
Oil USO: printing below 37.96, the maj poc, in a weak price location.
EURUSD: Chart prints below 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low, in a weak price location.
