Pre-open comment Friday 15th August
posted 09.28 a.m. est
Thursday generated a higher Vlaue Area but again it was narrower than the VA 20day average and Volume was also below average, previous highlighted comments. But, ES currently prints above the 1949 poc it in a stronger price location. This is now First Level Support.
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn poc)
ES Major Support = 1872 (maj poc)
All four major stock index ETFs have negative price momentum, breadth is not yet supportive and Bonds and Dollar remain strong. However in the longer timeframe charts held their Key Support levels as shown below..
ETFs – Key Charts/Levels: Time printed below these prices could signal a major change in trend for the market. SPY 192.73 (3mn poc); IWM 111.64 (2yr poc); DIA 164.23 (2yr poc); XLF 21.99 (2yr poc); XLK 38.42 (maj 1/2R).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41% (from 37%), Nasdaq 42% (from 40%), R2000 41% (from 39%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 6.11. On 07/29 the ratio reached 10.47, the highest in my database.
VIX closed lower at 12.42, down from 17.57 on 08/01, the highest reading since early April. On 07/03 it closed at 10.32, the lowest since Feb 2007.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: printing its highest level since May last year and now probing Resistance around 117.00
Dollar Index: in early July chart found Support at the 79.76 maj poc and has moved strongly higher from there. Last week chart reached its highest level since Sep last year.
Gold GLD: the 30mn poc recently migrated to 124.15. That Support could be tested today as Chart is lower pre-open.
Oil USO: printed its lowest level on Thursday since March.
EURUSD: Chart prints below 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low, in a weak price location.
