Pre-open comment Monday 18th August
Activity: Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and no Significant Selling.
Efficiency: see chart. w/e 08/01 Sellers were Active and Effective, w/e 08/08 Buyers and Sellers were both Active & ES stalled, w/e 08/15 Buyers were Active & ES rallied but on the larger timeframe the two most recent weekly Value Areas have been generated lower/overlapping the previous VA.
Negatives: Buyers have been Active but their Efficiency is not convincing, see above. Breadth is not yet Supportive and Bonds and Dollar look strong.
Positives: Price location is strong and charts did not break down with the recent sell-off, see Levels below.
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn poc)
ES Major Support = 1872 (maj poc)
ETFs – Key Charts/Levels: Time printed below these prices could signal a major change in trend for the market. SPY 192.73 (4mn poc); IWM 111.64 (2yr poc); DIA 164.23 (2yr poc); XLF 21.99 (2yr poc); XLK 38.42 (maj 1/2R).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41%, Nasdaq 40%, R2000 39%, UK 44%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.40. On 07/29 the ratio reached 10.47, the highest in my database.
VIX ended the week at 13.17 having reached 17.57 on 08/01, the highest reading since early April.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: last week printed its highest level since May last year and now printing above the Resistance around 117.00
Dollar Index: in early July chart found Support at the 79.76 maj poc and has moved strongly higher from there.
Gold GLD: the 30mn poc recently migrated to 124.15. That Support could be tested this week.
Oil USO: last week printed its lowest level since March.
EURUSD: Chart prints below 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low, in a weak price location.
