Pre-open comment Thursday 4th September
Reactive Selling was marked early in Wednesday’s session. The 30dy Support at 1998.50 was probed but ES prints above that level pre-open today. The Value Area was printed in the same price area as the previous two. The red-at-top high suggests a stall here but as long as ES prints above 1998.50 (or recovers that level on a test) it remains in a strong ST price location.
ES First Level Support = 1998.50 (30dy)
ES Second Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn)
ES Major Support = 1872
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61% (unch), Nasdaq 55% (from 54%), R2000 55% (from 61%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 9.0. There are only seven higher ratios in the database, all in July/August, the highest being 10.47 On 07/29.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: last week chart reached its highest level since May last year but is sharply lower this week. The Key S/R area is between 116.17 (1/2R) and 117.15 (maj poc). Pre-open today chart prints below this price band.
Dollar Index: has today printed its highest level since July last year.
Gold GLD: chart found resisatnce last week at 124.15, the 30mn poc, and fell sharply lower on Tuesday to a 50dy low. This chart has been consolidating for a year now in a contracting type of pattern and we are looking for a directional move to begin soon.
Oil USO: Has sold-off since mid June. There is Support a little lower is at 34.17, the 1/2R off 2009 low.
EURUSD: Printing a twelve month low today and has broken the Support at 1.3066, the 3yr poc.
