Pre-open comment Wednesday 10th September
Dayframe: During Tuesday’s session there was a brief, rejected, probe above the 1998.50 minor poc. The Value Area was generated entirely below this level.
The VAL of the current price distribution (weekly timeframe) is at 1980.00. If ES remains below 1998.50 I would expect a test of 1980.00 and if Buyers are stillactive they would be expected to react.
ES First Level Resistanve = 1998.50 (50dy)
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn)
ES Major Support = 1872
I have said that Key Chart IWM needs to hold above 115.41, 1/2R off July high, to maintain a strong price location. Pre-open today chart prints below that level. Breadth numbers deteriorated yesterday, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 50% (from 58%), Nasdaq 49% (from 56%), R2000 46% (from 55%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.34. Monday’s ratio was 10.1 and I only have one ratio higher than that which is 10.47 on 07/29.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Chart was sharply lower last week having reached its highest level in fifteen months the previous week. Pre-open today chart has printed a nineteen day low below 117.15 (maj poc) in a weakened price location.
Dollar Index: The four year high is 84.75 (July last year) and chart has printed close to this level this week.
Gold GLD: recently found resistance at 124.15, the 30mn poc and then fell sharply. Chart currently prints close to the June low. GLD has been consolidating for a year in a contracting type of pattern and we had been expecting a directional move to occur.
Oil USO: Has sold-off since mid June. There is Support at 34.17, the 1/2R off 2009 low and this was almost tested on Monday.
EURUSD: Last Thursday broke the Support at 1.3066 (3yr poc) and subsequently printed its lowest level since July last year. New low for this move occured on Tuesday.
