S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 18th September

posted 09.02 a.m. est

See yesterday’s comments. The VAH (Value Area High) for a minor distribution covering the last fifteen days is at 2003.00 (dashed). ES briefly tested that level on Wednesday. If ES cannot hold its strong price location above the 1998.50 poc the VAL of this distribution at 1985.00 (dashed) may come into play.

The disparity between large cap – small cap performance is still very evident with SPY printing a new high yesterday and Key Chart IWM printing below 115.41, 1/2R off July high.
Momentum (PriceOsc) is yet to turn up for any of the four major Stock Index ETFs. Bulls would want to see that happen.

ES First Level Resistance = 1998.50 (50dy)
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn)
ES Major Support = 1872

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 47%), Nasdaq 48% (from 46%), R2000 43% (from 42%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 8.00. The highest ratio being 10.47 On 07/29.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Chart is sharply lower from the recent high and in a weak price location below 117.15 (maj poc) but is now technically oversold and currently holding above the next Support at 112.27, the 12mn poc.
Dollar Index: The four year high is 84.75 (July last year) and chart is printing close to this level.
Gold GLD: Recently found resistance at 124.15, the 30mn poc and fell sharply. Pre-open today has printed its lowest level since early January.
Oil USO: Interesting chart. Has sold-off since mid June but the Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) is currently holding. Possibility of a turn here but price printing time below this level would be very weak price location and immediately suggest lower.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month chart broke below 1.3066 (3yr poc) and has today printed its lowest level since July last year. This level is now Resistance.