S&P 500 emini pre-open Friday 26th September

posted 09.14 a.m. est

See Wednesday’s highlighted comments. Wednesday’s Ineffective Buying day made its high at the minor 1/2R (weak ST pattern) and on Thursday ES broke below the level (1971) that had previously attracted Reactive Buyers. Breadth deteriorated again, Key charts print below their Key levels in weak price location and there has been a muted response from Bears in the Rydex data, see below. I would need to see price location and breadth data improve before considering the long side. There is Support at ES 1949.

Key Charts/Levels: Pre-open today IWM is printing below 111.64 (2yr poc) and DIA prints below 170.38 (now 18mn poc).

ES First Level Resistance = 1998.50 (50dy)
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn)
ES Major Support = 1872

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 23% (from 33%), Nasdaq 29% (from 38%), R2000 23% (from 32%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 9.01. The market has fallen significantly this week but the ratio has not. As I wrote earlier in the week, this is not usually bullish in the ST. The highest ratio in the database is 10.47 On 07/29.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: recently held the Support at 112.27, the 12mn poc, and rallied but there is significant Resistance higher at 117.15 (maj poc).
Dollar Index: on Thursday printed a new four year high.
Gold GLD: Recently found resistance at 124.15, the 30mn poc and fell sharply. On Thursday printed its lowest level since early January.
Oil USO: Has sold-off since mid June, down to the Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) which is Key. Possibilty of a turn here but price printing time below this level would be very weak location and suggest lower.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month chart broke below 1.3066 (3yr poc) and on Thursday printed its lowest level since November 2012. 1.3066 is now Resistance.