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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling twice (on Wednesday). Wednesday was was an Ineffective Buying day (overlapping Value Area) and made its high at the (then) minor 1/2R (weak ST pattern). On Thursday ES broke below the level that had previously attracted Reactive Buyers. I would want to see price location and breadth data improve before considering the long side. There is Support at ES 1949.
Key Charts/Levels: At the start of this week IWM is printing below 111.64 (2yr poc) and DIA prints below 170.38 (now 18mn poc).
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System is negative for all Major Market Charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 28%, Nasdaq 32%, R2000 27%, UK 39%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
09/26: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower this week at 41.8% (from 42.2%). Bears% was higher at 28.2% (from 23%). Fourweeks ago Bears% fell to 19.2% which was the lowest this year. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) is currently at 13.6 which represents quite a change in sentiment since four weeks ago when the nett reached 32.7, an extremely high with only one number higher than that in the last three years.
09/26: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 48% (from 52.5%). Bears% was almost unchanged at 15.3% but note that three weeks ago Bears% fell to 13.3% which was the lowest since 1987
09/26: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 60 having reached 66 three weeks ago which was the highest reading since the start of the year.
09/26: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 59.76, down from 67.08.
Mutual Fund Flow:
09/26: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 8.17. The highest ratio being 10.47 On 07/29
09/26: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $5.6 Billion in the week to 24th September.