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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling four times and Significant Buying once. Early in the week there was a probe above the 1967 Resistance but this was rejected – this happened again pre-open Thursday. Post-open on Friday price was accepted around 1920, a level which had previously found Reactive Buying Support (see previous comments). Later in the day there was a new low with Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) being marked. There is ES Major Support at 1872.00
Key Charts/Levels: Key Charts/Levels: IWM prints below 111.64 (2yr poc) in a weak price location. DIA printsbelow 170.38 (18mn poc) with Support at 164.23 (maj poc). XLK prints below 38.42 its maj 1/2R.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: All major Market Charts remained negative for the third week.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 13%, Nasdaq 15%, R2000 15%. UK 11%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
10/10: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher this week at 39.9% (from 34.4%). Bears% was almost unchanged at 31.0%.
The nett was therefore higher (at 8.9) and this with the market selling off sharply. No fear shown in this poll yet.
10/10: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 45.5% (from 47.5%). But Bears% was also lower at 14.1% (from 15.1%). Five weeks ago Bears% fell to 13.3% which was the lowest since 1987 and has not increased much from there.
10/10: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 56, the lowest single reading since July 2012.
10/10: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower again at 33.14, the lowest since June 2012.
Mutual Fund Flow:
10/10: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 7.37. The recent sell-off in the SPY is now more than 5% but the ratio has remained above 7. This is unusual and as a contrarian sentiment measure indicates that Rydex retail traders have not yet reached the level of fear usually associated with market lows.
10/10: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of -$6.7 Billion in the week to 8th October. The 4wk Flow number is at -4.8. an eight week low