S&P 500 emini pre-open Friday 17th October

posted 08.00 a.m. est

Thursday generated a second Value Area entirely below the poc at 1872 but Reactive Buying (green-at-bottom) was marked. First sign of ST strength would be Effective Buying marked above 1872 – pre-open today ES has probed that Resistance.

ES Second Level Resistance = 1949.00
ES First Level Resistance = 1872.00 (maj poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 17% (from 16%), Nasdaq 26% (from 23%), R2000 32% (from 29%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 5.13, the lowest since April. Note that VIX was above 30 intraday on Wednesday for the first time since December 2011.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: spiked violently higher on Wednesday to a two year high followed by a sharp reaction from there. As long as chart holds above 117.14 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location in the LT.
Dollar Index: printed a four year high ten days ago. Has corrected a little from there.
Gold GLD: Last week the chart tested the Jan 2014 and June 2013 lows and is currently up off this proven chart Support. Price below these lows would likely spark another round of selling.
Oil USO: The potential Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low) was broken earlier this month and chart has been sharply lower from there to its lowest level since June 2012.
EURUSD: earlier in the month printed a two year low. There is Support lower at 1.2300