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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: Significant Buying was marked twice lat week. Significant Selling has not been marked for nineteen days. On Tuesday the minor poc migrated to 2009.00 and this First Level Support held for the rest of the week. Price below 2009 would be the first sign of weakness in the ST.
Breadth numbers are supportive in the ST but Sentiment indicators have seen rapidly increasing optimism which could become a problem.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained neutral for Nyse & R2000 and turned positive for Nasdaq. UK turned back to negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 60%, R2000 70%, UK 58%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
11/07: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 52.7% which is the highest this year. Bears% was sharply lower at 15.1% which is even more extreme, being the lowest Bears% for years. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 37.6 is the highest since Jan 2011.
11/07: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 54.6% which is an extreme jump from 35.3 % just two weeks ago. Bears% was lower at 15.1%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) is at 39.5, up strongly from 17.1 two weeks ago.
11/07: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 60. Up from 52 just three weeks ago, the lowest single reading since June 2012
11/07: The NAAIM Exposure Index: Having plummeted to a panicky low of 9.97 (the lowest since 2011) three weeks ago at the price low, the Exposure Index is climbing fast – this week at 77.68
Mutual Fund Flow:
11/07: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 9.33 which is up strongly from 5.13 (a six month low) on 10/16. The highest ratio in the database being 10.47 on 07/29. The ratio has risen quickly indicating the public are moving strongly back into the market. We need to watch this closely.
11/07: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $15.4 Billion in the week to 5th November. This is the largest single week inflow in twelve months and confirms the Rydex data. The 4wk flow has jumped to a positive 18.80 Billion from the extreme low reading of -22.50 Billion just two weeks ago.