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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES Analysis: On Monday last week a brief test below 2035, the minor poc, was rejected and ES rallied. Subsequently all Value Areas were printed above that level with Buyers Reacting on Thursday (green-at-bottom) and Sellers were then sought higher. On Friday ES opened sharply higher and Sellers Reacted (red-at-top). First sign of weakness would be price printing below 2035.
The negatives are divergences between price and daily breadth indicators and the increasing bulls seen in the Sentiment data (particulary the Rydex ratio which has reached a new extreme). And note that Momentum (PriceOsc), although positive, is down for all four major stock index ETFs.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System – Nyse turned positive. Nasdaq remained positive. R2000 remained neutral. UK remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 69%, UK. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
11/21: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 49.1%. Down from last week’s 57.9% which was the highest Bull% since December 2010. Bears% was higher at 23.8% (from 19.3%). Two weeks ago Bears% reached an extreme low reading of 15.1%. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 25.3 is down from 38.6 which was the the highest since December 2010 and the 4wkma of nett at 32.45 is down just slightly from last week’s 32.93 which was the highest since 2005
11/21: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 56.4% (from 55.5%). Bears% was almost unchanged at 14.9%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) is at 41.5, up strongly from 17.1 four weeks ago.
11/21: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 63
11/21: The NAAIM Exposure Index: Having plummeted to a panicky low of 9.97 (the lowest since 2011) five weeks ago at the price low, the Exposure Index climbed fast although is a lower this week at 72.06
Mutual Fund Flow:
11/21: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 11.97 which is the highest ratio in the database. Historically this has been a warning for the market.
11/21: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $571 Million in the week to 19th November. The 4wk flow has jumped to 35.47 Billion, the highest since March. And this from an extreme low reading of -22.50 Billion just four weeks ago