Pre-open comment Friday 28th November
Dayframe: See Wednesday’s highlighted comments. Early in Wednesday’s session ES briefly tested the minor poc Support at 2066 (dashed) and overnight that has been the exact low with ES printing 2070 pre-open. Useful level to monitor in the ST.
First sign of LT weakness would be price printing below 2035.00. The negatives are divergences between price and daily breadth indicators and the extreme bulls seen in the Sentiment data, below.
ES First Level S/R = 2035.00 (min poc)
ES Second Level Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 77% (from 76%), Nasdaq 68% (unch), R2000 75% (from 74%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 13.37 which is the highest in the database. Bull fund assets that I follow are at their highest level and Bear fund assets are now very close to the extreme low level which was seen early this year. Historically this kind of measurement has been a warning for the market.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: chart remains in a strong price location above 117.14 (maj poc) and has reached a 29day high pre-open today.
Dollar Index: printed a four year high on Monday.
Gold GLD: recently reached its lowest level since April 2010 but has rallied off that low. In the LT it is still in a weak price location below the 119.87 maj poc.
Oil USO: pre-open today is printing its lowest level since March 2009.
EURUSD: printing close to the two year low set earlier in the month. There is Support at 1.2300
