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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: ES spent last week in a narrow range. No Significant Buying or Selling was marked. Effective Selling has not been marked since early October. First sign of LT weakness would be price printing below 2035.00.
Negatives are divergences between price and daily breadth indicators and the extreme bulls seen in the Sentiment data.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System turned neutral for Nyse, stayed positive for Nasdaq, stayed neutral for R2000 and stayed positive for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 70%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 67%, UK 74%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
11/28: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 52.1%. Two weeks ago Bulls% reached 57.9% which was the highest since December 2010. Bears% was lower at 20.8%. Three weeks ago Bears% reached an extreme low reading of 15.1%. The 4wkma of nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 33.20 is the highest since 2005
11/28: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slighty higher at 56.5%. Bears% was lower at 13.8%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) is at 42.7, up strongly from 17.1 five weeks ago.
11/28: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 65
11/28: The NAAIM Exposure Index: Having plummeted to a panicky low of 9.97 (the lowest since 2011) six weeks ago at the price low, the Exposure Index has reached a 5month high at 86.78
Mutual Fund Flow:
11/28: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 13.32. Thursday’s ratio at 13.37 is the highest in the database. Historically this has been a warning for the market.
11/28: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $6.6 Billion in the week to 26th November. The 4wk flow at 33.27 Billion is down from the previous week’s 35.47 Billion which was the highest since March.