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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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Last week I marked Significant Buying once and no Significant Selling. Sellers Reacted on 11/21 but Aggressive Selling has not been marked since 13th October. Value Areas for the last three days have been generated entirely above the minor(16day) poc, now at 2066.00. which is a positive in the ST. ES prints close to this minor Support one hour pre-open today. Time spent below 2066 would be a indication of weakness in the ST and is worth monitoring at the start of this week. First sign of LT weakness would be price printing below 2035.00.
Negatives are divergences between price and daily breadth indicators and the extreme bulls seen in the Sentiment data.
*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: CP Market Timing System – Nyse & R2000 remained neutral, Nasdaq & UK remained positive.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 69%, Nasdaq 66%, R2000 72%, UK 76%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
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*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
12/05: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 42.7%. Down 9.4 from 52.1% which is the largest single week fall in Bulls% since June. However, three weeks ago Bulls% reached 57.9% which was the highest since December 2010.
Bears% was higher at 25.9% (up from 20.8%). Four weeks ago Bears% reached an extreme low reading of 15.1%. Also note that one week ago the 4wkma of nett (Bulls minus Bears) reached 33.20 was the highest since 2005
12/05: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 53.4% (from 56.5%). Bears% was almost unchanged at 13.9%.
12/05: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 64
12/05: The NAAIM Exposure Index: Having plummeted to a panicky low of 9.97 (the lowest since 2011) seven weeks ago at the price low, the Exposure Index reached a 5month high at 86.78 one week ago and is currently at 86.06
Mutual Fund Flow:
12/05: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 12.12. Monday’s ratio at 13.73 is the highest in the database. Historically this has been a warning for the market.
12/05: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $1.6 Billion in the week to 3rd December. The 4wk flow at 33.27 Billion is down from the previous week’s 35.47 Billion which was the highest since March.
VIX:
VIX printed 11.53 intraday on Friday which is the lowest since 09/19