S&P 500 emini pre-open Friday 16th January

posted 09.25 a.m. est

Pre-open yesterday ES tested the minor poc at 2017.00 (dotted), see yesterfday’s comments. Immediately post-open that level was approached and Sellers Reacted (red-at-top). I wrote on 01/05 “I will wait for Significant Buying (green) to be marked before considering new longs” and no Significant Buying has been marked since then. Breadth and price momentum have deteriorated but there is important Support a little lower at 1962.00.

First Level Resistance = 2035.00 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 197.20 (8mn poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36% (from 41%), Nasdaq 34% (from 41%), R2000 37% (from 44%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 10.46. The lowest ratio since the recent price high (12/29) was 9.41 and the Bear Fund assets that I follow reached a new extreme low this week. Bulls would prefer to see some fear being registered.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT:exceeded the 2012 high last week and printed has a new high this week.
Dollar Index: on Thursday printed its highest level since 2003.
Gold GLD: chart is now printing above 119.87, maj poc, for the first time since early September. Time spent above this level would be a big positive.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and printed a new low on Tuesday.
EURUSD: probed the 4mn Time Resistance at 1.2475 last month and is lower from there, printing below 1.2300, the maj poc, and has today printed its lowest level since 2003.