S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 29th January

S&P 500 emini pre-open Thursday 29th January

posted 09.00 a.m. est

See yesterday’as highlighted comments. On Wednesday ES Opened above 2033.50, the 4mn poc, and Sellers Reacted immediately (red-at-top). Price below 2033.50 is weak price location. Re the current distribution which I believe began in October – I wrote on Monday that it.. “suggests development above 2100 and the Value Area Low at 1995.50 would provide Support. These levels will change over time”. The VAL at 1995.50 is dashed on the chart. If a distribution is valid the VAL will usually Support/reject price so I’m interested to see what happens post-open today. The implications of the distribution would change if the current poc at 2035.50 migrates lower. Likeliest level is around 2010 so time printed here will be monitored.

First Level S/R = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41% (from 49%), Nasdaq 38% (from 45%), R2000 40% (from 48%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 10.37. In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database. More interesting was the change in the Rydex Money Market fund assets, up by more than 30%. Some fear here.

Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: recently exceeded the 2012 high and on Wednsday printed a new high.
Dollar Index: on Friday printed its highest level since 2003.
Gold GLD: has rallied strongly this month and last week probed the Resistance at 124.12, the major poc, but has not yet printed time above this level.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and on Wednesday printed a new low.
EURUSD: probed the 4mn Time Resistance at 1.2475 last month and is lower from there, printing below 1.2300, the maj poc, and on Monday printed its lowest level since 2003.