The high on 09/26 (5 minutes before RTH) was 5830, see note 09/24. On 09/25 the 1month Control moved to 5771.50. ES is currently printing below that level (now Resistance) and aligning more with the negative scenario outlined in yesterday’s note rather than the positive one. Unless ES can print time back above 5771.50 it […]

ES rallied back above 5771.50 at the end of last week, see Friday’s note on chart. Overnight that level (now Support) has been tested. Negative scenario at the start of this week would be a break back below that Support indicating further weakness, time at 5752, and then a break lower. The positive indication would […]

Pre-open today ES is printing back above 5771.50 and as long as that level holds it is in a stronger position (see yesterday’s note). A break back below would indicate further weakness.

On Tuesday ES broke below 5771.50 First Support and on Wednesday this level became Resistance, see chart. Not great price action. As I wrote on 09/26 ‘Time below that level would be first sign of weakness.’ Bulls would want to see 5771.50 recovered quickly. Next Support (6mn) is at 5635.

Technical oscillators on the Weekly Charts, e.g. the popular Relative Strength Index (RSI), have been negatively diverging with price action over the past few weeks, see weekly SPY chart below. Personally, I think these ‘indicators‘ are of secondary importance compared to the distribution analysis that I post every day, but maybe a rejected upside break-out […]

On Monday ES dipped briefly below First Support at 5771.50 but recovered quickly. For 8 days ES has been trading in a tight range, and generating narrow individual Value Areas, day to day. This often precedes a strong directional move that sometimes follows a false break out of the range in the opposite direction.

First Support moved to 5771.50 on 09/25, see note 09/26. That has held so far. From note 09/24 ‘Price above 5830 though and the trend might start to get exhausted‘. Effective Selling was last marked 09/03 – nothing since then.

First Support (1 month) moved up to 5771.50. Time below that level would be first sign of weakness. As I wrote on Tuesday, ‘Price above 5830 though and the trend might start to get exhausted‘.

On Thursday I wrote that First Support is at 5696 (Dec contract). As long as ES holds that level I said that further upside would be indicated. Price above 5830 though and the trend might start to get exhausted.

On Tuesday I wrote, It is now important for Bulls that ES recovers 5635 but time above that level would indicate further upside. That was based on the Sep contract and ES is printing above that level in a stronger position. For the Dec contract (that we are now following) the equivalent level is 5696 […]