The minor Control has migrated to 4368.5 (from 4319) Control. It is now important to monitor price relative to that level. A break below the Control today would put ES back in a weak position.Resistance is at 4460, the 1/2R off July high (Dec contract).

ES recovered the minor Control at 4319 and has generated four Value Areas above that level which is encouraging. The way the minor Control is developing isn’t clear enough to offer any clues so I’m monitoring Support at the 4319 Control and Resistance at 4460, the 1/2R off July high (Dec contract).

Tuesday’s Value Area was generated entirely below 4319, see yesterday’s note on chart. As I wrote then “If ES remains below 4319 a test of 4210 would start to look likely to me“.

ES price action yesterday relative to the minor Control at 4319 was not positive. I want to see an entire VA generated above that level (at a minimum) before I could turn bullish on even the daily timeframe. If ES remains below 4319 a test of 4210 would start to look likely to me.

The minor Control has migrated to 4319. Price relative to that level at the start of this week is important to monitor. ES has opened RTH just below that level – Bulls would want to see a rejection and rally – then time around 4390 which I’ve mentioned before. Price below 4319 is a weak […]

There’s not enough evidence to indicate a low has been found but holding 4357 (v. minor Control) today would be a start. Time just above 4390 would also be a positive.

from note 09/18 “a more defensive stance is appropriate“, and 09/21 “Time at 4420 or lower would be a further negative“. Strong Support is much lower and no evidence yet that ES might be finding a low here.

from note a week ago “a more defensive stance is appropriate”, and on Thursday “Time at 4420 or lower would be a further negative”. Strong Support is much lower, I’m staying cautious unless ES recovers 4420.

Not seeing much to add to previous notes. Monday “a more defensive stance is appropriate“. Thursday “Time at 4420 or lower would be a further negative“.

ES has now tested the 4mn VAL at 4420. On the daily timeframe Bulls would want to see rejection of that test and ES to rally back. Time at 4420 or lower would be a further negative.