as per yesterday’s note I’m “Not looking at new longs yet, at a minimum I would want ES printing time above 4490“.Unless ES can do that I expect 4395 to be tested.

In the ST price action has been weak with rejected tests of reference levels, e.g. yesterday’s early test of 4490. I expected to see 4443 printed – not yet, see yesterday’s note. Not looking at new longs yet – at a minimum I would want ES printing time above 4490.

Development – the 3month Control migrated to 4490. In the first 5 minutes of RTH today that Resistance was tested and rejected which is not positive price action. Unless ES can print time above 4490 I will be targeting 4443.

In Thu RTH there was an early probe above the First Level Resistance at the 4525 minor Control, but that failed quickly. Value Area was generated for the third consecutive day below that level. ST Bulls would want that level recovered convincingly and safer longs would be above the 4586 Control.

First 30 minutes in today’s RTH, ES has printed above the First Level Resistance at 4525, see chart. imo it’s very possible that price could attract more time – safer longs would be above the 4586 Control.

I am cautious if ES is printing below the first level Resistance which is now 4525 (the v min Control). CPI data is being released on Thursday and if the market views this as a significant risk event there is a possibility that we’ll see 4411.50 print before then. Price back above the 4586 Control […]

As long as ES holds 4411.50 it stays in a strong position in the LT. In the ST, and as per Wednesday’s note, too much time was spent at or below 4550 indicating weakness and ES has now tested 4500. 30-minutes into today’s RTH ES is printing close to 4520.

As long as ES holds 4411.50 it stays in a strong position in the LT. In the ST, time spent below 4550 midweek was/is an indication of weakness. As per Wednesday’s note “Bulls would want to see rejection here (bounce) and price back above 4586”.

Last three Value Areas have been printed entirely above the 4586 Control. Overnight ES has dipped down towards the 1-month VAL at 4550. Acceptance (time spent at or below that level) would be a sign of weakness on the minor timeframe. Bulls would want to see rejection here (bounce) and price back above 4586.

Volatile day on Thursday but pre-RTH today ES is back above 4586. Important for Bulls now that 4586 holds as Support.