Last week there was a rejected test of the major Control (Support) at 4137. Value Areas on Thu and Fri were generated above that level. 4137 could come back into play if stress increases, see note 05/03, but this is a stronger position.

On Wed ES sold down below the major Control at 4137 but recovered and Thu RTH generated a Value Area entirely above that level. 4137 could come back into play if stress increases, see note 05/03. Minor level for reference today is Support at 4151.

ES sold down below the major Control at 4137 but has recovered and one hour pre-RTH is printing above 4150. Until the debt ceiling issue is resolved 4137 may keep coming into play but price above that level is a stronger position – for more on this see previous notes highlighted on chart.

Market stress has increased and once again, ES is selling back to the major Control at 4137, see highlighted note from 05/03. This despite the technical positives from last week. Price relative to that level is important to monitor. ST: clue in Tuesday’s RTH was price relative to 4202, see yday’s note.

LT: Looking positive to me as long as ES holds 4137.ST: Today I’m monitoring price relative to the v min Control at 4202.If 4205 attracts time then I’d be targeting 4240.Should 4180 be tested ST Bulls would want to see a fast rejection.

Risk aplenty on the macro side but imo last week’s price action was very constructive. ES convincingly recovered the 4159 1/2R Resistance and SPY did the same with 414. Two consecutive days of Significant Buying (green) driving ES away from Control at 4137.

emini S&P 500 breaking higher above Resistance In yesterday’s RTH, ES generated a Value Area entirely above 4159 (1/2R) which was formerly Resistance. That’s encouraging, see equivalent level on SPY, 414, on chart. See note 05/17.

Yesterday’s price action was encouraging for Bulls. Break higher coming or another rejection? see yesterday’s note on chart. Need to see ES hold above the 1/2R at 4159 and especially SPY above 414.

ES has been in an extraordinarily tight range since the start of April centred around the major Control at 4137. Breakout of the range would likely mark the beginning of the next directional move and imo a break higher would carry more conviction as it would exceed the proven 1/2R Resistance at 4159. The SPY […]

from yday’s note ‘4151 is in play again today – price relative to that level is worth monitoring’. There were two brief rejected probes above that level in Monday’s RTH and one again overnight. BUT the minor Control has now migrated lower close to the Major at 4137, so 4151 is less important as Resistance.As […]