Volatile tug-of-war in the ST between Buyers Sellers as seen from my pov. 10/15 wrote ‘In the ST,..6015 is targeted if Monday’s Buying Day low at 5873 holds‘. Tue closed RTH below that level which is a mechanical signal of weakness but Buyers stepped back in and ES is now printing back at the high […]

S&P 500 (SPY) is setting new ATH. The Russell 200 (small caps) and Nasdaq have not. Be good for the bull case to see that confirmation. In the ST, Significant Buying (green) was marked for ES, see chart and 6015 is targeted if Monday’s Buying Day low at 5873 holds.

ES is printing above 5830 which, I wrote on Friday, would lessen the chances of a reversal here. I wrote on 10/10, ‘Trend/technicals obviously still indicate higher‘.

I wrote yesterday – ‘Trend/technicals obviously still indicate higher but a clear rejection of price above 5830 here would be interesting‘. The longer ES prints close to or above 5830 the lesser the chances of a reversal here. I’m looking for a “clear rejection” and that would have ES breaking first Support at 5771.50 within […]

I wrote 24th September ‘Price above 5830 though and the trend might start to get exhausted‘. That is being put to the test now with ES printing above 5840 in the minutes before RTH and then declining quickly. Trend/technicals obviously still indicate higher but a clear rejection of price above 5830 here would be interesting. […]

The high on 09/26 (5 minutes before RTH) was 5830, see note 09/24. On 09/25 the 1month Control moved to 5771.50. ES is currently printing below that level (now Resistance) and aligning more with the negative scenario outlined in yesterday’s note rather than the positive one. Unless ES can print time back above 5771.50 it […]

ES rallied back above 5771.50 at the end of last week, see Friday’s note on chart. Overnight that level (now Support) has been tested. Negative scenario at the start of this week would be a break back below that Support indicating further weakness, time at 5752, and then a break lower. The positive indication would […]

Pre-open today ES is printing back above 5771.50 and as long as that level holds it is in a stronger position (see yesterday’s note). A break back below would indicate further weakness.

On Tuesday ES broke below 5771.50 First Support and on Wednesday this level became Resistance, see chart. Not great price action. As I wrote on 09/26 ‘Time below that level would be first sign of weakness.’ Bulls would want to see 5771.50 recovered quickly. Next Support (6mn) is at 5635.

Technical oscillators on the Weekly Charts, e.g. the popular Relative Strength Index (RSI), have been negatively diverging with price action over the past few weeks, see weekly SPY chart below. Personally, I think these ‘indicators‘ are of secondary importance compared to the distribution analysis that I post every day, but maybe a rejected upside break-out […]