posted 9.27 a.m. est Pre-open Tueday 31st August I marked Aggressive Selling on Monday but this was Ineffective (Value Area was overlapping/narrower on less Volume).  ES failed again on Monday to overcome the 1/2R off July low at 1065.25.  Dayframe: The last imbalance is now Selling (red) and that eliminates new long trades for me.  […]

posted Saturday 28th August Pre-open Monday 30th August There was an obvious Response from the Buyers last week – as anticipated at the start of the week.  I marked four instances of Significant Buying (green) and one instance of Significant Selling. Last week’s price action has lowered the VAL (from start May) to 1053.  If […]

posted 9.29 a.m. est Pre-open Friday 27th August Yesterday’s highlighted comments in graphic are relevant. dayframe: First Level S/R today is 1049.25 (1/2R off Wednesday’s low).  Pre-open ES has found resistance here. LT Sentiment: Bears outnumbered Bulls this week in the AAII (public poll) by 2 to 1. This further reinforces the idea that downside […]

posted 9.25 a.m. est Pre-open Thursday 26th August Longframe: Long positions still eliminated for me. Dayframe: The last imbalance is now Buying (green) and that eliminates new short trades for me.  However until ES manages to print some value above 1065.25 (1/2R off July low) I remain cautious about being long. Wednesday saw Responsive Buyers […]

posted 9.25 a.m. est Pre-open Wednesday 25th August Early in Tuesday’s session I had hopes that by the close I would be marking Significant Buying but in fact the close was to weak to allow that.  The last imbalance remains Responsive Selling (red-at-top) on Monday. 1065.25 is the most important level (1/2R off July low).  […]

posted 9.27 a.m. est Pre-open Tuesday 24th August see yesterday’s comments highlighted above. ES spent just enough time at 1073 on Monday for the minor poc (August) to migrate lower to this level.  As I wrote yesterday “this would most likely be ST negative”. Pre-open ES is printing below 1058, the VAL from start May.  […]

posted 9.29 a.m. est Pre-open Monday 23rd August Longframe:  The Chartprofit Market timing system remained negative for the sixteenth consecutive week.  The market is most likely in ranging mode.  Sentiment indicators are mostly unhelpful at the moment but Mutual Fund Assets indicators suggest that downside is limited. e.g. amgdata.com reported Equity Fund Outflows last week […]

posted 9.27 a.m. est Pre-open Friday 20th August See yesterday’s highlighted comments.  ES spent most time yesterday close to the 3mth poc at 1073.  Overnight ES has been as low as 1063.50.   A Value Area printed below 1073 would indicate lower.  Effective Selling marked below 1073 would strongly indicate lower. Dayframe: If Buyers are going […]

posted 9.26 a.m. est Pre-open Thursday 19th August 1126.25 is the 1/2 Bear Market level for ES continuous chart.  This has proved resistance in June and August (see chart). In the webcast on Monday 9th I showed the Value Area of the ES 3month price distribution.  The VAH (value area high) came in at 1122. […]

this blog will resume on 19th August