Following the fast rejection of the LT Resistance at 4152 on Tuesday pre-RTH, ES declined below 4000 (1/2R Support) and is currently in a weak position on both LT and ST timeframes. The 3mn Control has just migrated lower to 3957.0 and price relative to that level would be useful to monitor today.

On Tuesday the LT Resistance at 4152 was briefly tested. On the Sep contract this was for less than one minute and fast rejection. As I wrote yesterday “Important to see if rejection here continues or whether price can be accepted at that level – for now the safest assumption is rejection”.

ES Futures (Sept) spent less than 1 min above the LT Resistance at 4152. Fast rejection. Important to see if rejection here continues or whether price can be accepted at that level – for now the safest assumption is rejection.

Now following Dec contract. On Thursday there was a rejected test of the 3957 (2mn) Support (arrowed) – ES rallied from there and ended the week strong. There is LT Resistance at 4152 (7mn). Price above that level would indicate strength on that timeframe.

On Thursday there was an early, rejected test of the 3957 (2mn) Support, see yesterday’s note, and ES rallied above the Resistance at 3984 (1/2R off June low). That’s a solid performance on the daily timeframe. On the longer timeframe Resistance remains at 4152 (7mn).

ES testing the Resistance at 3984, the 1/2R off the June low (dashed line). Time above that level would be a stronger ST position. Interestingly, the 2mn migrated to 3957 and is potential Support today. Failure here and downside target is still 3816. LT: Price below 4152 (7mn Control) = Weak position.

ES failed to recover 4152 (7mn Control) late Aug and same now with 3984, the 1/2R off the June low (dashed line on chart). Weak price action & weak position. I expect 3816 to be tested if ES remains below 3984.

LT: ES is in a weak position below 4152 (7mn Control). First Level Resistance is 3984, the 1/2R off the June low (dashed line). ST: If ES fails to hold minor Support 3932.5 (1mn Control) I would expect a test of 3816.

ES has broken below 3984, the 1/2R off the June low (dashed line) and is now in a further weakened position. This level is now Resistance. Always watch the 1/2R off a low.

ES remains in a weak position below 4152 (7mn Control). On Tuesday price was accepted (time) close to the VAL at 4029 and ES fell further, see yesterday’s note. Today a quick rejection of a test below 3960 might set up a rally but I’m not interested in longs at current levels unless ES prints […]