The reduce risk point is now a RTH Close below 4048.50 (02/01 Buying Day Low) with LT Support at 3989. I’m targeting 4210 as per Monday’s note.

ES is once again printing time above 4074, 3month VAH, which is a positive and suggests development to 4210. Possibly a volatile day today and repeating what I wrote in Monday’s note – Mechanically, a RTH Close below 4027.25 (Thursday’s Buying Day Low) would indicate ST weakness and cutting back risk.

On Friday ES probed above the 4074, 3month VAH, which I wrote could stall the rally. Monday’s Value Area was lower but there’s been plenty of positives recently. Repeating what I wrote in yesterday’s note Mechanically, a RTH Close below 4027.25 (Thursday’s Buying Day Low) would indicate ST weakness and cutting back risk.

ES retracing today pre-RTH but last week’s price action was strong and Friday’s Value Area was above 4074, see Friday’s note. Mechanically, a RTH Close below 4027.25 (Thursday’s Buying Day Low) would indicate ST weakness and cutting back risk – otherwise I’m targeting 4210. LT Support at 3989.

Price action so far this week has been positive. ES has now reached the minor VAH at 4074 which could stall the rally but time at this level or higher would be a further positive indication and suggest a new distribution higher has begun on the daily time-frame.

ES found Resistance at the 4045 minor VAH, declined and then found Support just above the 3961 minor poc, see Tesday’s note. Both those levels have now migrated higher. The minor VAH is now at 4074 and the poc Support moves to 3989. As noted on Monday “good price action“.

ES has rallied to potential Resistance at 4045 which is the 2mn VAH. ST: If the price distribution that began 2 months ago is still developing then price may be rejected here with Support at 3961 but time at 4045 or higher would indicate a new distribution (up) has begun. LT: As long as ES […]

On Friday I wrote…Price relative to that level (3927.0) is now very important to monitor, above/strong below/weak. Friday RTH opened slightly below 3927 and rallied immediately. Significant Buying (green) was marked. That’s good price action. Bulls would want to see 3927 hold as Support now. I’m not considering shorts if ES is printing above that […]

On Thursday the Major Control migrated slightly lower to 3927.0. Price relative to that level is now very important to monitor, above/strong below/weak.

I wrote that Bulls would want to see any test of the 3955-65 area of Control (and Support) to be rejected – as happened last Thursday, see note 01/17. Yesterday’s price action was not positive in that respect. When price is close to a Major Control it can change very quickly from a position of […]