See highlighted note on chart from 17th June re major VAL. At that time the VAL was at 3686 – it is now around 3740 which ES has tested today. As per previous note.. time spent at the VAL “increases the chances that even on the weekly time-frame we are in a new distribution down […]

Overnight low was 3766.75, see note 09/20 on chart. Yesterday, minor control migrated back to 3894.0 just before the sell-off. In LT ES remains in a weak position.

The minor (12day) Control fell to 3877.50. Price relative to this level is worth monitoring today. Time below that price would be a negative development in the ST and indicate lower.In LT, ES is in a weak position, with First Resistance at 3927.0.

Significant Buying (green) was marked on Monday and that usually indicates higher in the ST – but ES is in a weak position – see previous notes on chart. Holding 3894.0 post RTH open would be constructive. If not, I’d be targeting 3765.0.

This week there has been a rejected test of the 4152 Resistance and a subsequent break below Support at 4000 (1/2R). The 3mn Control then migrated lower to 3957 and currently price prints below that level as well. Weak position.

Following the fast rejection of the LT Resistance at 4152 on Tuesday pre-RTH, ES declined below 4000 (1/2R Support) and is currently in a weak position on both LT and ST timeframes. The 3mn Control has just migrated lower to 3957.0 and price relative to that level would be useful to monitor today.

On Tuesday the LT Resistance at 4152 was briefly tested. On the Sep contract this was for less than one minute and fast rejection. As I wrote yesterday “Important to see if rejection here continues or whether price can be accepted at that level – for now the safest assumption is rejection”.

ES Futures (Sept) spent less than 1 min above the LT Resistance at 4152. Fast rejection. Important to see if rejection here continues or whether price can be accepted at that level – for now the safest assumption is rejection.

Now following Dec contract. On Thursday there was a rejected test of the 3957 (2mn) Support (arrowed) – ES rallied from there and ended the week strong. There is LT Resistance at 4152 (7mn). Price above that level would indicate strength on that timeframe.

On Thursday there was an early, rejected test of the 3957 (2mn) Support, see yesterday’s note, and ES rallied above the Resistance at 3984 (1/2R off June low). That’s a solid performance on the daily timeframe. On the longer timeframe Resistance remains at 4152 (7mn).