ES has reached its lowest today since May last year – NQ since March last year. ES broke below the 4353 Major Control on 04/22 and price action has been weak since then as detailed on previous notes on chart.

Thursday saw a dramatic reversal of Wednesday’s rally. After ES broke below the major 4353 poc on 04/22 I wrote that I wouldn’t be considering new longs until that price level was recovered. I also wrote “Time spent close to 4200 would represent acceptance and indicate a new LT distribution had begun which would be […]

ES spiked above minor Resistance at 4211 (now minor Support) after rate announcement. If 4211 is held I assume the Major Control at 4353 will be tested. Currently price is below the Major which is a LT weak position so not looking at long positions yet (trades yes).

05/04 LT: ES remains below 4353, the Major Control, which is a LT weak position, see previous notes on chart. Not considering long positions below that level. ST: Not considering long trades below 4211 (minor control) but 4190 could attract time which might lower the minor control to that price. That development could set up […]

LT: ES remains below 4353, the Major Control, which is a LT weak position, see previous notes on chart. Not considering long positions below that level. ST: Not considering long trades below 4211 (minor control). Time around 4190 would be a minor positive development and indicate a retest of 4353.

ES printing below 4353 (major control). Likely test of 4090. Rejection of that Support and could see bounce – acceptance would see ES lower. Not looking for longs on any timeframe if ES is printing below 4213.

Aggressive Buying (green) marked on Thursday but ES remains below 4353, the Major Control, which is a weak position, see previous notes on chart. ST: If 4213 (minor control) Support can be held I’ll look for a rally back to 4353 but time below 4213 would indicate a retest of Tuesday’s low.

Aggressive Selling (red) has been marked twice in last four days and ES prints below 4353, the Major Control, which is a weak position, see previous notes on chart. ST: If 4213 (minor control) Support can be held I’ll look for a rally back to 4353 but time below 4213 would indicate a retest of […]

from Previous notes: If ES is printing below the 4353 Control it is in a weak position. Time spent close to 4200 would represent acceptance and indicate a new LT distribution had begun which would be down, i.e. confirming a major change of trend. ES currently printing below 4200

From yesterday’s note – “The Value Area Low of the LT price distribution is around 4200. A rejected test would be interesting but price acceptance at the VAL would be a further negative“. There was in fact a rejected test of 4200 (dashed blue) but I won’t be considering new longs if ES is printing […]