Early in Thursday’s RTH, ES couldn’t manage a recovery above 4605 (see yesterday’s notes on chart) and that minor sign of weakness played out late in the session with a decline below 4530. Aggressive Selling (red) was marked so new longs are eliminated for me, at least until Significant Buying (green) is marked again.

In the longer time-frame ES is in a strong position if it holds above the major Support at 4353. Mechanically, a RTH close below 4509.75, dashed line, Monday’s Buying Day low, would be the first indication of weakness on this time-frame. In the short-term (today) I’m watching price relative to 4605, the 10day control. If […]

The last six Value Areas were generated entirely above the 4447 Support. ES is in a strong position. Mechanically, a RTH close below 4509.75, dashed line, Monday’s Buying Day low, would be the first indication of weakness.

Last five Value Areas were generated entirely above the 4447 Support. ES in strong position. Mechanically, a RTH close below 4509.75 (dashed line), Monday’s Buying Day low, would be the first indication of weakness.

Last four Value Areas were generated entirely above the 4447 Support. ES in strong position. Mechanically, a RTH close below 4456 (dashed line on chart), Thursday’s Buying Day low, would be the first indication of weakness.

Wednesday and Thursday repeated the rare pattern that we saw as recently as last week, i.e. a Significant Selling Day followed immediately by a Significant Buying Day. See previous comments on chart (highlighted). Last three occasions, the market rallied. First Level Support at 4447.0 has held.

Support (dashed line on chart) at 4447.0, the 1/2R off this year’s high, was not convincingly broken, so yesterday’s Selling (red) has been ineffective so far.

Support at 4447.0 (1/2R off this year’s high), dashed line on chart. Bulls would want that to hold. Mechanically, a RTH close below 4379, the low of the 03/18 Buying Day, would be the first indication of weakness.

and testing next Resistance level Last two Value Areas were generated entirely above the Control at 4353, that’s usually a positive (needs to hold now). Currently ES is also printing above the natural Resistance at 4447.0 (1/2R off this year’s high). Consolidation above that level would be the next positive.

ES rallied strongly last week. Effective, Aggressive Buying (green) was marked three times. The major Control migrated to 4353. That is now Support.