Chartprofit eBook 10th January 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday above the Mon-Fri Hi-Lo range indicating Buyers Active (Ineffective).
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum for all four stock index ETFs is positive
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying once and Significant Selling once. During Thursday’s session, and again on Friday, the poc at 1835.50 was probed but as of pre-open today no significant time has been printed above this Resistance. If price can print time above this level (and despite current Sentiment readings) it would suggest development up to 1865. Only Significant Selling marked below 1803.50 (4mn poc) would be a concern in the LT.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing system remained positive for Nyse and Nasdaq turned neutral (from positive) for R2000 and turned positive (from neutral) for UK
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64%, Nasdaq 72%, R2000 66%, UK 76% Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
The majority of Sentiment indicators have registered extreme optimism recently. This usually a warning for the market.
Consensus Polls:
01/10: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was almost unchanged at 43.6%. Down from 55.1% two weeks ago which was the highest Bulls% since January. Bears% was lower at 25%. The 4wk ma of net (Bulls-Bears) at 22.85 is a nine week high although it reached 25.05 eight weeks ago which was the highest since early 2012.
01/10: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly lower at 60.6%. Previous week Bulls% reached 61.6% which was the highest since October 2007. Bears% was unchanged at 15.2%, up slightly from 14.1% two weeks ago which was the lowest Bears% in my database. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 45.4 is down slightly from previous week’s 46.4 which is the highest single reading in my database and this week’s 4wkma of nett at 45.3 is the highest in my database
01/10: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 65. Previous week’s 67 was the highest reading since late May.
01/10: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 92.07. The highest reading in the database was in February at 104.25.
Mutual Fund Flow:
01/10: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.16. The ratio reached 6.65 on 12/27 which is the highest ratio in my database and registered extreme optimism which has historically been a warning for the market.
01/10: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.9 Billion in the week to 8th January.
01/10: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.9 Billion in the week to 8th January.
VIX: closed at 12.14 on Friday, the lowest Close since 11/15