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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying once (Ineffective) and Significant Selling twice. All Values Areas were printed below the 1998.50 poc. If the 50dy poc remains at 1998.50 I will not consider new long positions until I mark Effective Buying above that level.
Once again, a Key Chart to monitor at the start of this week is IWM. Chart needs to hold above 115.41, 1/2R off July high, to maintain a strong price location. Chart closed very close to that level on Friday.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System – Nyse and UK turned negative, Nasdaq turned neutral, R2000 remained negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44%, Nasdaq 51%, R2000 47%, UK 57%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
09/12: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower this week at 40.4% (from 44.7%). Bears% was higher at 26.6% (from 24%). Two weeks ago Bears% fell to 19.2% which was the lowest this year. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) is lower at 13.8 but two weeks ago reached 32.7 which was extremely high with only one number higher than that in the last three years.
09/12: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly higher at 57.6%. Bears% was higher at 14.1% but note the previous week’s Bears% fell to 13.3% which was the lowest since 1987
09/12: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 64. Down from previous week’s 66 which was the highest reading since the start of the year.
09/12: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 63.63, down from 82.49
Mutual Fund Flow:
09/12: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 8.72. The highest ratio being 10.47 On 07/29.
09/12: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $982 Million in the week to 10th September. The 4wk flow number is at 21.48.