Chartprofit eBook 14th March 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling three times and Significant Buying once. Last week’s price bar was “inside” the previous week’s bar so on the weekly timeframe, although Sellers were active they were not Effective. Effective Selling marked below ES 1835.50, the six month poc, would be a sign of weakness in the longer timeframe but at the start of this week this Support has held.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System turned negative for Nyse, turned neutral for Nasdaq and R2000, and turned negative for U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61%, Nasdaq 64%, R2000 61%, UK 40% . Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
03/14: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher at 41.3%. Bears% was slightly higher at 26.8%
03/14: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 55.1%. Bears% was also higher at 17.4%. The lowest Bears% in my database was 14.1% recorded eleven weeks ago.
03/14: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 62
03/14: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 85.2
Mutual Fund Flow:
03/14: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio reached 8.39 on Thursday which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
03/14: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $9.2 Billion in the week to 12th March. The 4wk flow number is $37.7 Billion with the highest 4wk flow in my database being $40.4 Billion last August.
03/14: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $4.5 Billion in the week to 12th March