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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES analysis: Activity: Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and no Significant Selling.
Efficiency: see chart. w/e 08/01 Sellers were Active and Effective, w/e 08/08 Buyers and Sellers were both Active & ES stalled, w/e 08/15 Buyers were Active & ES rallied but on the larger timeframe the two most recent weekly Value Areas have been generated lower/overlapping the previous VA.
Negatives: Buyers have been Active but their Efficiency is not convincing, see above. Breadth is not yet Supportive and Bonds and Dollar look strong.
Positives: Price location is strong and charts did not break down with the recent sell-off
*********** BREADTH
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CP Market Timing System: All major Market Charts remained negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 41%, Nasdaq 40%, R2000 39%, UK 44%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
08/15: AAII (public poll). Big increase in optimism. Bulls% was sharply higher at 39.8%, a nine week high and up from 30.9%. Bears% was lower at 27%, down from previous weeks 38.2% – this is the largest single week’s fall in Bears% since August 2013 but note that previous week’s Bears% was the highest for nearly twelve months.
08/15: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 46.4%, a six month low. Bears% was also lower at 16.2%
08/15: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 60. Three week’s ago the number reached 66 which was the highest reading since the start of the year.
08/15: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was almost unchanged at 50.61. This is the lowest reading since September last year.
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Mutual Fund Flow:
08/15: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.40. On 07/29 the ratio reached 10.47, the highest in my database.
08/15: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $1.3 Billion in the week to 13th August. Note that the previous week saw the largest single week outflow since early February of -$16.4 Billion and the current 4Wk flow number is the lowest since August 2012
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VIX
08/15: VIX ended the week at 13.17 having reached 17.57 on 08/01, the highest reading since early April. On 07/03 it closed at 10.32, the lowest since Feb 2007