Chartprofit eBook 17h May
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday above Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which indicates Active, Effective Buying on the weekly timeframe. Active Sellers have not been marked on this timeframe during 2013.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying twice. So far at least, higher prices have not attracted a Significant Response from the Sellers. Significant Selling has not been marked for twelve days.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Printing almost at the major poc Support at 117.15. Time printed below that level would be weak price location. Momentum is down and negative.
Oil USO: Printing almost at the Resistance around 34.20. Time printed above this level would put the chart back into a strong price location. Momentum, although positive is down.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply last month to its lowest level for two years and that level was almost tested on Friday. Momentum is negative and down.
Silver SLV: has now printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum is negative and down.
Dollar Index: On Friday printed its highest level since July 2010. Momentum is positive and up.
EURUSD: Printing close to Support at 1.2777, the major poc and has yet to break it.. Momentum is negative and down.
*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 81%, Nasdaq 71%, R2000 76%, UK 80%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
05/17: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was slightly lower at 38.5% (from 40.8%). Bears% at 29.3% was up slightly from last week’s sixteen week low at 27.4%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) at 9.2 was down from previous week’s 13.4 and a lower net in an up week for the market is usually ST bullish (contrarian).
05/17: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly higher at 54.2% which is a fourteen week high. Bears% was also unchanged at 19.8%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) at 34.4 is the highest since May 2011. The 4wk ma of nett is still below the peak it reached in February (if the market pushes higher still, we should watch that level).
05/17: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 70. This is the highest since 2007. 4wk ma yet to exceed the February peak.
05/17: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at at 84.23 which is a nine week high.
Mutual Fund Flow:
05/17: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower on Friday at 4.28. Rydex traders remain sceptical and from a contrarian viewpoint that’s usually supportive. Ratio reached a low of 3.22 on 4th Jan and a high of 5.22 on 13th Feb.
05/17: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $8.9 Billion in the week to 15th May.
05/17: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3.1 Billion in the week to15th May
Option Ratios:
05/17: OEX Calls%_10dyma reached its highest level since Dec 2010. This usually considered to be a smart-money indicator.