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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES Analysis: Significant Sellers (not marked since the mid-October low) were offered opportunity all last week (by Buyers) which they did not take. If they are not marked soon Buyers will auction ES higher to look for them. On Friday the 35dy poc migrated to 2034.50. This is also the 1/2R of last week’s Range (which was very narrow – basis SPX). This is First Level Support/Resistance at the start of this week and will provide a clue re ST direction.
Note that Momentum (PriceOsc), although positive, is now down for all four major stock index ETFs .
*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained neutral for Nyse and R2000, remained positive for Nasdaq and turned positive for U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68%, Nasdaq 63%), R2000 70%, U.K. 65%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
11/14: AAII (public poll). Bulls% jumped higher at 57.9% which is the highest Bull% since December 2010. Bears% was was also higher at 19.3% (from 15.1%) but rising from last week’s extreme low reading (the lowest for years). The nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 38.6 is also the highest since December 2010. The 4wkma of nett at 32.93 is the highest since 2005
11/14: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 55.5%. Bears% was lower at 14.8%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) is at 40.7, up strongly from 17.1 three weeks ago.
11/14: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 62
11/14: The NAAIM Exposure Index: Having plummeted to a panicky low of 9.97 (the lowest since 2011) four weeks ago at the price low, the Exposure Index is climbing fast – this week at 85.43
Mutual Fund Flow:
11/14: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 10.96 which is the highest ratio in the database. Historically this has been a warning for the market.
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11/14: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $10.7 Billion in the week to 12th November. The 4wk flow has jumped to 26.7 Billion, the highest since March. And this from an extreme low reading of -22.50 Billion just three weeks ago