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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying once and Significant Selling once. Wednesday and Thursday generated Value Areas entirely below the poc at 1872 but Friday’s VA was above that level. Overnight and pre-open today (Monday) ES has printed above 1872 and Bulls would want to see that level hold at the start of this week. There are still too many negatives for me to consider the long side. The minimum I would want to see is Effective Buying marked above 1872 and other Key Charts (DIA, XLK, XLF) in improved price locations, see charts for levels.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained negative for all Major Market Charts for the fourth consecutive week.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 18%, Nasdaq 24%, R2000 28%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
10/17: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher again this week at 42.7% (from 39.9%). Bears% was also higher at 33.7% (from 31.0%). The nett was almost unchanged at 9.0. Still no measurable fear shown in this poll
10/17: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 37.8% (from 45.5%). Bears% was higher at 17.3% (from 14.1%). The nett at 20.5 is a twelve month low indicating some pessimism here
10/17: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 52, the lowest single reading since June 2012
10/17: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) fell sharply to 9.97, the lowest since 2011
Mutual Fund Flow:
10/17: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.36 up from Thursday’s 5.13 which was a six month low.
10/17: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $2.8 Billion in the week to 15th October.
VIX
10/17: VIX printed above 31 last week for the first time since December 2011
Options:
10/17: ISEE Index (equities only) 10ma fell to a multi year low this week